Round 64

Setting the City's Minimum Wage Policy

A mid-sized city council must decide how to adjust the local minimum wage, currently at the state floor of $10.50/hour, amid rising living costs and mixed input from residents and businesses. Cost-of-living studies show a living wage for a single adult is roughly $18/hour, but small business owners warn that steep increases could force layoffs, automation, or closures, especially in retail and food service. Larger employers and unions are pushing for a faster path to $20+/hour, citing corporate profitability and worker retention. The city has authority to set its own minimum wage above the state level but cannot set it below. Economists on both sides present conflicting studies on employment effects, and the council must decide on a policy before the next fiscal year budget cycle. The choice will affect roughly 40,000 low-wage workers and several thousand small businesses, and will likely draw legal challenges or lobbying regardless of outcome. The council wants a defensible, implementable policy that balances worker welfare, business viability, and administrative simplicity.

Dashboard

Status

DECIDED

Winner

E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation.

Majority

E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation.

Duration

6084 ms

Topic

Options

E Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation.
3.00 of 3 PPV winner
A Raise the wage to $15/hour as a compromise ceiling, pairing it with a sunset review clause in three years to reassess based on employment data.
0.00 of 3
B Adopt a tiered system where large employers (100+ employees) reach $18/hour within two years while small businesses have until year five, easing the burden on small firms.
0.00 of 3
C Keep the wage at the state floor but introduce targeted subsidies (earned income tax credits, housing vouchers) funded by a local business tax to support low-wage workers without changing wage law directly.
0.00 of 3
D Delegate the decision to a state-level minimum wage commission and adopt whatever regional standard it sets, avoiding unilateral city action and potential business flight to neighboring jurisdictions.
0.00 of 3
F Immediately raise the minimum wage to $18/hour citywide, matching the calculated living wage, with no exemptions for business size.
0.00 of 3

Checks

Baselines

PPV no gold answer
Majority no gold answer
Comparison PPV matched majority
k samples8
Agents3
Parsed samples 24 / 24
Quality near unanimous split

PPV

Top Influences

Claude Sonnet 5 · delegate 1.106
Gemini 3 Flash Preview · delegate 1.106
GPT 5.4 mini · delegate 1.000

Samples

Answer Distribution

Claude Sonnet 5 E: 8
GPT 5.4 mini E: 7 A: 1
Gemini 3 Flash Preview E: 8

PPV

Influences

Label Role Score
Claude Sonnet 5 delegate 1.106
Gemini 3 Flash Preview delegate 1.106
GPT 5.4 mini delegate 1.000

Voting matrix

Constructed Delegation Matrix

To / From Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview
Claude Sonnet 5 0.0000.1060.000
GPT 5.4 mini 0.0000.0000.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview 0.0000.1060.000
A 0.0000.0000.000
B 0.0000.0000.000
C 0.0000.0000.000
D 0.0000.0000.000
E 1.0000.7891.000
F 0.0000.0000.000

Embeddings

Sample Embeddings

24 samples
Claude Sonnet 5 sample #0 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #1 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #2 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #3 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #4 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #5 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #6 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #7 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #0 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #1 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #2 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #3 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #4 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #5 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #6 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #7 · A · 1536 dims A Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #0 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #1 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #2 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #3 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #4 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #5 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #6 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #7 · E · 1536 dims E
Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview

Samples

Agent Responses

Claude Sonnet 5 openai_compatible · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5
#0 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Option E provides a balanced, defensible approach by phasing in increases to the living wage over five years, giving small businesses time to adjust through predictable annual steps while still moving workers toward $18/hour. Indexing partly to inflation adds ...

#1 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Gradual phase-in balances worker welfare against business viability better than an abrupt jump (F) or a compromise cap that may fall short of living costs (A). A tiered approach (B) creates administrative complexity and equity concerns between firm sizes, whil...

#2 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Gradual phase-in balances worker welfare and business viability better than an abrupt jump (F) or an arbitrary compromise with no clear rationale (A), while avoiding administrative complexity of a tiered system (B) or inaction (C, D). Indexing partly to inflat...

#3 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Phased approach (E) best balances the competing goals: it moves workers toward a genuine living wage ($18) rather than an arbitrary compromise, while gradual annual steps give small businesses time to adjust pricing, staffing, or automation instead of facing s...

#4 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

E balances worker welfare and business viability by phasing in increases gradually, allowing small businesses time to adjust while still reaching the living wage target. It avoids the administrative complexity of tiered systems (B), the abruptness and risk of ...

#5 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Phasing in gradually to $18/hour with indexed annual steps balances worker welfare (reaching the living wage) with business adjustment time, avoiding the shock of immediate jumps (F) or the legal/administrative complexity of tiered systems (B) that could invit...

#6 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Option E provides a defensible, implementable policy that balances worker welfare and business viability by phasing in increases gradually toward the calculated living wage, allowing businesses time to adjust while ensuring wages keep pace with inflation. It a...

#7 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

E balances worker welfare and business viability through gradual, predictable increases tied to inflation, giving small businesses time to adjust while still reaching the living wage target. It avoids the administrative complexity and equity concerns of tiered...

GPT 5.4 mini openai_compatible · openai/gpt-5.4-mini
#0 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

The council wants a policy that is defensible, implementable, and balanced, so a gradual increase is the safest option given the conflicting economic evidence and concerns about business disruption. Option (E) reaches the living wage goal while spreading the a...

#1 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

The council needs a policy that is both meaningful for workers and realistic for businesses, while also being easy to administer and defend. A gradual phase-in to $18/hour with annual increases indexed to inflation directly addresses the living-wage gap, reduc...

#2 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

The council wants a policy that is defensible, implementable, and balances worker gains with business risk. A gradual phase-in to $18/hour with annual increases indexed to inflation addresses the living-wage gap while reducing shock to small businesses and all...

#3 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

A sudden jump to $18/hour citywide could strain small businesses and create sharp implementation risks, while doing nothing would leave workers far below the living wage. A phased increase to $18 over five years with inflation indexing balances worker welfare ...

#4 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

The council needs a policy that is both defensible and practical: it should improve wages meaningfully, avoid a shock to small businesses, and be easy to administer before the next budget cycle. A gradual phase-in to $18/hour over five years with inflation ind...

#5 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

The council wants a policy that is defensible, implementable, and balanced, so an abrupt jump to $18 with no exemptions is likely too risky, while doing nothing or outsourcing the decision fails to address local authority and worker needs. A gradual phase-in t...

#6 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

The council wants a policy that is defensible, implementable, and balanced, so a gradual phase-in is more practical than an immediate jump to $18 or doing nothing. Option (E) best addresses worker welfare while giving businesses time to adapt, and indexing par...

#7 A · Raise the wage to $15/hour as a compromise ceiling, pairing it with a sunset review clause in three years to reassess based on employment data. 1536 dims

The council needs a policy that is both ambitious and practical: it should improve worker pay, but also avoid a sudden shock to small businesses and allow room to adjust if employment effects are worse than expected. Option (A) offers a moderate increase to $1...

Gemini 3 Flash Preview openai_compatible · google/gemini-3-flash-preview
#0 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

This decision requires balancing the urgent need for a living wage ($18/hour) against the economic risks to small businesses. Option (E) provides the most defensible and stable approach by phasing in the target wage over five years, which allows businesses tim...

#1 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

The council’s primary goal is to find a defensible balance between radical worker welfare needs and the survival of small businesses while ensuring administrative simplicity. A multi-year phased-in approach to $18/hour allows businesses to adapt their budgets ...

#2 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Option (E) provides a balanced approach by phasing in the $18 living wage over five years, which gives small businesses time to adjust while ensuring workers eventually meet the established cost-of-living requirements. This gradual implementation, combined wit...

#3 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

The council seeks a policy that balances the living wage ($18/hour) with the economic viability of small businesses while ensuring administrative simplicity and long-term stability. Option (E) provides a clear, predictable pathway to the $18 living wage target...

#4 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

A phased approach balances the urgent need for a living wage with the necessity of protecting small businesses from sudden financial shocks that could lead to layoffs. Indexing the increases to inflation ensures the policy remains defensible and maintains work...

#5 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Option (E) provides a balanced, predictable path toward a living wage while mitigating the "steep increase" risks predicted by small business owners. By phasing the increase over five years and indexing it to inflation, the city ensures long-term worker welfar...

#6 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Option (E) provides a balanced approach by reaching the calculated living wage through a predictable, multi-year phase-in that allows businesses time to adjust. Incorporating annual inflation indexing ensures that once reached, the wage maintains its purchasin...

#7 E · Phase in increases gradually over five years, reaching $18/hour, with annual step increases indexed partly to inflation. 1536 dims

Option (E) provides a balanced approach by phasing in the $18 living wage gradually, which protects worker purchasing power through inflation indexing while allowing small businesses time to adjust their operations. This gradual transition satisfies the requir...

Timings

Stages

Sampling5512 ms
Embedding565 ms
Signals6 ms
PPV1 ms

Errors

Agent and Round Errors

No errors recorded.