Round 62

Risk threshold policy

A mid-sized company is revising how it decides whether to accept, mitigate, transfer, or avoid operational risks across projects. Leadership wants a policy that improves consistency and accountability without slowing normal work too much. The organization has limited risk-management staff, mixed risk appetite across business units, and regulatory obligations in a few areas. The policy must be understandable to non-specialists, scalable across small and large initiatives, and strong enough to prevent major losses, but not so strict that it blocks routine innovation. The key tradeoff is between simplicity and control: a lighter process is easier to use but may miss emerging threats, while a stricter framework creates better oversight but adds overhead and possible delays.

Dashboard

Status

DECIDED

Winner

E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood.

Majority

E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood.

Duration

4677 ms

Topic

Options

E Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood.
3.00 of 3 PPV winner
A Require formal risk reviews only for high-cost, high-regulatory, or customer-facing initiatives; let lower-risk work proceed with minimal oversight.
0.00 of 3
B Implement a centralized risk committee that reviews all significant decisions and maintains a standardized register for every project.
0.00 of 3
C Use decentralized ownership: each team manages risks within broad enterprise guidelines, with periodic audits and exception reporting.
0.00 of 3
D Focus on scenario planning and red-team exercises for the highest-consequence risks, while keeping day-to-day controls lightweight.
0.00 of 3

Checks

Baselines

PPV no gold answer
Majority no gold answer
Comparison PPV matched majority
k samples8
Agents3
Parsed samples 24 / 24
Quality unanimous

PPV

Top Influences

Claude Sonnet 5 · delegate 1.000
GPT 5.4 mini · delegate 1.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview · delegate 1.000

Samples

Answer Distribution

Claude Sonnet 5 E: 8
GPT 5.4 mini E: 8
Gemini 3 Flash Preview E: 8

PPV

Influences

Label Role Score
Claude Sonnet 5 delegate 1.000
GPT 5.4 mini delegate 1.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview delegate 1.000

Voting matrix

Constructed Delegation Matrix

To / From Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview
Claude Sonnet 5 0.0000.0000.000
GPT 5.4 mini 0.0000.0000.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview 0.0000.0000.000
A 0.0000.0000.000
B 0.0000.0000.000
C 0.0000.0000.000
D 0.0000.0000.000
E 1.0001.0001.000

Embeddings

Sample Embeddings

24 samples
Claude Sonnet 5 sample #0 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #1 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #2 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #3 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #4 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #5 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #6 · E · 1536 dims E Claude Sonnet 5 sample #7 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #0 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #1 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #2 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #3 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #4 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #5 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #6 · E · 1536 dims E GPT 5.4 mini sample #7 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #0 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #1 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #2 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #3 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #4 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #5 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #6 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #7 · E · 1536 dims E
Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview

Samples

Agent Responses

Claude Sonnet 5 openai_compatible · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5
#0 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

The tiered risk matrix directly balances simplicity and control by scaling oversight to risk severity, satisfying the need for consistency, accountability, and regulatory strength without imposing uniform heavy process on all projects. It is understandable to ...

#1 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix directly balances simplicity and control by scaling oversight to risk level, making it understandable, consistent, and resource-efficient across mixed appetites and regulatory needs. It avoids the overhead of full centralization (B) while ...

#2 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

This policy needs to be simple for non-specialists, scalable, and strong enough to prevent major losses without excessive delay. A tiered risk matrix directly addresses this by defining clear, objective thresholds for impact and likelihood, allowing routine lo...

#3 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

The tiered risk matrix directly addresses the simplicity-versus-control tradeoff by scaling oversight to risk severity: low-impact work moves quickly while high-impact/high-likelihood risks trigger mandatory escalation and mitigation. It is easily understood b...

#4 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix directly balances simplicity and control by scaling oversight to actual impact/likelihood, keeping routine work fast while ensuring high-risk items get mandatory escalation and mitigation. It's easily understood by non-specialists, scales ...

#5 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix directly addresses the simplicity-versus-control tradeoff by scaling oversight to actual risk level rather than applying uniform rules. It is easy for non-specialists to understand, works across small and large projects, and ensures high-i...

#6 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

Option E provides a structured yet scalable framework, using clear, quantifiable thresholds (impact/likelihood) to determine escalation and approval requirements. This directly addresses the need for consistency and accountability across mixed business units w...

#7 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix directly addresses the simplicity-vs-control tradeoff by scaling scrutiny to actual impact/likelihood, keeping routine work fast while ensuring high-risk items get proper escalation and mitigation. It's understandable to non-specialists, s...

GPT 5.4 mini openai_compatible · openai/gpt-5.4-mini
#0 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix gives clear, scalable thresholds for when risks must be escalated, approved, or mitigated, which improves consistency and accountability. It is understandable to non-specialists and can be applied to both small and large initiatives withou...

#1 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix best fits the need for consistency, accountability, and scalability while still allowing routine work to move quickly. It gives non-specialists clear thresholds for when to escalate, mitigate, or accept risk, and it can be adjusted for mix...

#2 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

The best choice is the one that balances simplicity with control by setting clear, scalable decision rules. A tiered risk matrix gives non-specialists an understandable way to classify risk, triggers stronger oversight only when impact and likelihood justify i...

#3 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix gives clear thresholds for when risks must be escalated, approved, or mitigated, which improves consistency and accountability. It is also scalable and understandable for non-specialists, since routine work can stay lightweight while highe...

#4 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

The best choice is the one that balances simplicity with control by using explicit thresholds, so teams know when to escalate and when routine handling is enough. A tiered matrix is scalable, understandable to non-specialists, and can be tuned to protect high-...

#5 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix best matches the need for consistency, accountability, and scalability while still allowing routine work to stay lightweight. Clear thresholds for escalation and mandatory mitigation make the policy understandable to non-specialists and he...

#6 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

The policy needs to balance simplicity with control by giving non-specialists clear rules while scaling oversight based on risk level. A tiered matrix with thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation directly addresses mixed risk appetite, li...

#7 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

The best choice is the one that balances simplicity with control by setting clear, scalable decision rules. A tiered risk matrix gives non-specialists an understandable framework, supports consistent escalation and mitigation, and can be adjusted for different...

Gemini 3 Flash Preview openai_compatible · google/gemini-3-flash-preview
#0 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix (E) provides the most balanced solution because it offers the clear, understandable thresholds needed for consistency and accountability across different business units and project scales. It allows for the scalable governance requested by...

#1 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

This policy requires a balance between simplicity and control while addressing the need for consistency across varied business units and scales. A tiered risk matrix (E) provides the necessary structure to define clear thresholds for escalation without burdeni...

#2 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

The best approach is to implement a tiered risk matrix, as it provides the specific "clear thresholds" requested to balance consistency with operational speed. This model scales across different project sizes by defining exactly when a risk requires simple doc...

#3 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

To achieve consistency and accountability while balancing overhead, a tiered risk matrix provides the necessary objective structure for non-specialists to categorize risks. This approach offers clear escalation thresholds that scale across different project si...

#4 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix (E) provides a structured, objective framework that balances simplicity with control by clearly defining when a risk requires escalation or mitigation. This approach ensures consistency across diverse business units and projects of varying...

#5 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

This policy requires a balance between simplicity for non-specialists and enough structure to ensure consistency across diverse business units. A tiered risk matrix provides a scalable, easy-to-understand framework that defines exactly when a risk must be esca...

#6 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

A tiered risk matrix (Option E) directly addresses the need for consistency and accountability by providing clear, objective thresholds for when risks must be escalated or mitigated. This approach is highly scalable and understandable for non-specialists, allo...

#7 E · Adopt a tiered risk matrix with clear thresholds for escalation, approval, and mandatory mitigation based on impact and likelihood. 1536 dims

This policy needs to balance consistency and accountability with scalability for a mid-sized company with limited staff. A tiered risk matrix provides the necessary structure to standardize decision-making across diverse business units while remaining accessib...

Timings

Stages

Sampling4169 ms
Embedding505 ms
Signals3 ms
PPV0 ms

Errors

Agent and Round Errors

No errors recorded.