Round 45

Carbon Tax Revenue Allocation

A state legislature has passed a new carbon tax on fossil fuel emissions, projected to raise $400 million annually. Lawmakers must decide how to allocate the revenue before the law takes effect. Goals include maintaining public support for the tax, ensuring it doesn't disproportionately burden low-income households, incentivizing further emissions reductions, and addressing the state's other pressing needs. The revenue can only be allocated one primary way under the enabling statute, though small carve-outs are possible. Analysts disagree on which approach best sustains long-term political viability and environmental effectiveness, since each path serves different constituencies and creates different incentive structures.

Dashboard

Status

DECIDED

Winner

B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs.

Majority

B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs.

Duration

6330 ms

Topic

Options

B Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs.
3.00 of 3 PPV winner
A Use the revenue to cut existing payroll or sales taxes, aiming for broad economic efficiency and political palatability while diluting the visible link between the carbon tax and climate action.
0.00 of 3
C Target the funds toward low-income and fossil-fuel-dependent communities through direct assistance and job transition programs, prioritizing equity but risking backlash from taxpayers who receive nothing.
0.00 of 3
D Allocate the revenue to general state infrastructure and public services, addressing broad budget shortfalls but drawing criticism that the tax has become just another general revenue stream.
0.00 of 3
E Direct the funds into subsidies for renewable energy, electric vehicles, and grid upgrades, accelerating decarbonization but favoring households wealthy enough to adopt these technologies sooner.
0.00 of 3
F Split the funds evenly between a household rebate and a dedicated climate resilience fund for flood defense and wildfire mitigation, balancing short-term relief against long-term adaptation needs.
0.00 of 3

Checks

Baselines

PPV no gold answer
Majority no gold answer
Comparison PPV matched majority
k samples8
Agents3
Parsed samples 24 / 24
Quality unanimous

PPV

Top Influences

Claude Sonnet 5 · delegate 1.000
GPT 5.4 mini · delegate 1.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview · delegate 1.000

Samples

Answer Distribution

Claude Sonnet 5 B: 8
GPT 5.4 mini B: 8
Gemini 3 Flash Preview B: 8

PPV

Influences

Label Role Score
Claude Sonnet 5 delegate 1.000
GPT 5.4 mini delegate 1.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview delegate 1.000

Voting matrix

Constructed Delegation Matrix

To / From Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview
Claude Sonnet 5 0.0000.0000.000
GPT 5.4 mini 0.0000.0000.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview 0.0000.0000.000
A 0.0000.0000.000
B 1.0001.0001.000
C 0.0000.0000.000
D 0.0000.0000.000
E 0.0000.0000.000
F 0.0000.0000.000

Embeddings

Sample Embeddings

24 samples
Claude Sonnet 5 sample #0 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #1 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #2 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #3 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #4 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #5 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #6 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #7 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #0 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #1 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #2 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #3 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #4 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #5 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #6 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #7 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #0 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #1 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #2 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #3 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #4 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #5 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #6 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #7 · B · 1536 dims B
Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview

Samples

Agent Responses

Claude Sonnet 5 openai_compatible · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5
#0 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

Per-capita rebates directly counter regressive cost-of-living concerns while being highly visible and easy for taxpayers to understand, which sustains political support for keeping the tax over time. This transparency and universal benefit outweighs the lack o...

#1 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

Per-capita rebates maximize transparency and political durability, since every resident sees a direct offset to the tax's cost-of-living impact, which helps sustain public support even as prices adjust. While this approach doesn't fund emissions-reduction prog...

#2 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

Per-capita rebates (Option B) best sustain political support by giving every resident a visible, tangible benefit that directly offsets the regressive cost impact of the carbon tax, which is crucial for long-term viability. While it lacks direct emissions-redu...

#3 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

Per-capita rebates directly address the regressive burden of a carbon tax while maintaining transparency and broad-based public support, which is critical for long-term political viability. Although it lacks direct climate program funding, it preserves the pri...

#4 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

Per-capita rebates (option B) best sustain political viability by directly offsetting cost-of-living increases for all residents, making the tax's fairness highly visible and countering claims that it burdens low-income households disproportionately. While it ...

#5 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

Per-capita rebates directly counter the regressive impact of a carbon tax on low-income households, sustaining public support through visible, transparent returns, and are a well-documented policy model (e.g., "carbon dividends") that maintains political viabi...

#6 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

Per-capita rebates directly address the regressive burden of a carbon tax while maintaining transparency and broad public support, which is critical for long-term political durability. Although it lacks direct emissions-reduction funding, the visible, universa...

#7 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

Per-capita rebates directly address the regressive burden of a carbon tax on low-income households while maintaining maximum transparency and public trust, which is critical for the tax's long-term political survival. Although this approach doesn't fund emissi...

GPT 5.4 mini openai_compatible · openai/gpt-5.4-mini
#0 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The best choice is the one that keeps the tax politically durable while preserving a clear connection to climate policy and helping households absorb the cost. Equal per-capita rebates are broadly visible, easy to explain, and can offset the regressive burden ...

#1 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The best choice is the one that most directly preserves public support while also protecting low-income households from higher energy costs. Equal per-capita rebates are transparent, easy for the public to understand, and they broadly offset the regressivity o...

#2 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The best choice is the one that most directly preserves public support by clearly returning money to households while also being easy to explain and administer. Equal per-capita rebates are transparent, offset higher energy costs for everyone, and avoid the po...

#3 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The key tradeoff is between keeping the tax politically durable and preserving a clear climate purpose. Among the choices, equal per-capita rebates are the most transparent, easy to understand, and best for offsetting regressive household impacts, which tends ...

#4 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The best choice is the option that most directly preserves public support while also helping low-income households and keeping the policy transparent. Equal per-capita rebates return the revenue to everyone, are easy to understand, and can offset higher energy...

#5 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The key tradeoff here is between political durability, fairness, and maintaining a clear link between the carbon tax and its purpose. Equal per-capita rebates are often the strongest choice for public support because they are highly transparent, easy to unders...

#6 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The best choice is the one that most directly preserves public support while also keeping the carbon tax visible and fair to households. Equal per-capita rebates do that well: they are simple, transparent, and help offset higher energy costs, especially for lo...

#7 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The best choice is the one that most directly preserves public support while also avoiding a regressive burden on households: equal per-capita rebates are transparent, easy to understand, and broadly offset higher energy costs for everyone. Although it doesn’t...

Gemini 3 Flash Preview openai_compatible · google/gemini-3-flash-preview
#0 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

This decision requires balancing the immediate political necessity of protecting low-income households from rising costs with the long-term goal of fostering public support for carbon pricing. Option (B) follows the "carbon fee and dividend" model, which is wi...

#1 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The prompt describes a multi-faceted goal: maintaining public support, protecting low-income households, and incentivizing emissions reductions. Option (B), returning revenue as equal per-capita rebates, is a proven mechanism for neutralizing the regressive na...

#2 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

This decision requires balancing public support and equity (avoiding burdens on low-income households) against environmental impact and long-term viability. Option (B) identifies the "refund" or dividend model, which is often cited by economists as the most ef...

#3 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

This decision involves balancing equity, political stability, and environmental goals. Option (B) serves as a "carbon dividend," ensuring the tax is progressive by offsetting cost-of-living increases for low-income households while maintaining broad public sup...

#4 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The primary challenge is balancing political support, equity for low-income households, and environmental effectiveness. Option (B) specifically addresses these core goals by offsetting increased energy costs through transparency and direct financial relief, w...

#5 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

This decision requires balancing public support and mitigating the regressive nature of carbon taxes with the need to incentivize further emissions reductions. Option (B) provides the most direct way to ensure the tax does not disproportionately burden low-inc...

#6 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

The decision requires balancing political viability, household equity, and emissions benefits. Option (B) specifically addresses the goal of ensuring the tax does not disproportionately burden low-income households while maximizing transparency, which is often...

#7 B · Return the revenue as equal per-capita rebates to all residents, maximizing transparency and offsetting cost-of-living impacts, though this provides no direct funding for emissions-reduction programs. 1536 dims

This decision involves balancing multiple conflicting goals: political viability, equity for low-income households, and emission reductions. Option (B) reflects the "Carbon Fee and Dividend" model, which is widely considered by economists and political scienti...

Timings

Stages

Sampling6048 ms
Embedding271 ms
Signals10 ms
PPV1 ms

Errors

Agent and Round Errors

No errors recorded.