Round 39

City Housing Affordability Strategy

A mid-sized city faces a severe shortage of affordable housing: median rents have risen 40% in five years while wage growth has stagnated, and homelessness counts are climbing. The city council has a fixed one-time budget plus limited regulatory authority (it can change zoning and permitting rules but cannot alter state tax law) and must choose a primary strategy to pursue over the next five years. Goals include increasing housing supply, protecting existing low-income residents from displacement, and doing so within political feasibility and budget limits. Each approach has different timelines, distributional effects, and risks of unintended consequences like gentrification, landlord exit, or insufficient near-term relief.

Dashboard

Status

DECIDED

Winner

F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment.

Majority

F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment.

Duration

6812 ms

Topic

Options

F Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment.
3.00 of 3 PPV winner
A Focus on streamlining permitting and cutting regulatory delays for private developers without changing zoning density, aiming to speed up existing pipeline projects while leaving broader land-use rules untouched.
0.00 of 3
B Implement strict rent stabilization citywide to immediately cap rent increases for current tenants, accepting the risk that landlords reduce maintenance, convert units, or exit the rental market.
0.00 of 3
C Direct the majority of the budget into city-built and city-owned public housing units, ensuring permanent affordability but producing far fewer total units per dollar spent and taking years to construct.
0.00 of 3
D Adopt inclusionary zoning that mandates a percentage of affordable units in all new private developments, spreading the cost across developers but potentially slowing overall new construction due to reduced project profitability.
0.00 of 3
E Expand housing voucher and rental assistance programs to subsidize demand for existing units, delivering faster relief to families but leaving overall housing supply unchanged and vulnerable to landlord price adjustments.
0.00 of 3

Checks

Baselines

PPV no gold answer
Majority no gold answer
Comparison PPV matched majority
k samples8
Agents3
Parsed samples 24 / 24
Quality unanimous

PPV

Top Influences

Claude Sonnet 5 · delegate 1.000
GPT 5.4 mini · delegate 1.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview · delegate 1.000

Samples

Answer Distribution

Claude Sonnet 5 F: 8
GPT 5.4 mini F: 8
Gemini 3 Flash Preview F: 8

PPV

Influences

Label Role Score
Claude Sonnet 5 delegate 1.000
GPT 5.4 mini delegate 1.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview delegate 1.000

Voting matrix

Constructed Delegation Matrix

To / From Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview
Claude Sonnet 5 0.0000.0000.000
GPT 5.4 mini 0.0000.0000.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview 0.0000.0000.000
A 0.0000.0000.000
B 0.0000.0000.000
C 0.0000.0000.000
D 0.0000.0000.000
E 0.0000.0000.000
F 1.0001.0001.000

Embeddings

Sample Embeddings

24 samples
Claude Sonnet 5 sample #0 · F · 1536 dims F Claude Sonnet 5 sample #1 · F · 1536 dims F Claude Sonnet 5 sample #2 · F · 1536 dims F Claude Sonnet 5 sample #3 · F · 1536 dims F Claude Sonnet 5 sample #4 · F · 1536 dims F Claude Sonnet 5 sample #5 · F · 1536 dims F Claude Sonnet 5 sample #6 · F · 1536 dims F Claude Sonnet 5 sample #7 · F · 1536 dims F GPT 5.4 mini sample #0 · F · 1536 dims F GPT 5.4 mini sample #1 · F · 1536 dims F GPT 5.4 mini sample #2 · F · 1536 dims F GPT 5.4 mini sample #3 · F · 1536 dims F GPT 5.4 mini sample #4 · F · 1536 dims F GPT 5.4 mini sample #5 · F · 1536 dims F GPT 5.4 mini sample #6 · F · 1536 dims F GPT 5.4 mini sample #7 · F · 1536 dims F Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #0 · F · 1536 dims F Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #1 · F · 1536 dims F Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #2 · F · 1536 dims F Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #3 · F · 1536 dims F Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #4 · F · 1536 dims F Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #5 · F · 1536 dims F Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #6 · F · 1536 dims F Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #7 · F · 1536 dims F
Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview

Samples

Agent Responses

Claude Sonnet 5 openai_compatible · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5
#0 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Broad upzoning tackles the root cause—housing scarcity—by legally enabling much greater supply across the whole city, which is the most scalable, budget-light use of the council's zoning authority given the fixed budget and limited regulatory tools. Other opti...

#1 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Broad upzoning directly targets the root cause (severe supply shortage) with regulatory tools the city actually possesses, requiring no large budget outlay and creating durable long-term price relief across the whole housing stock rather than a narrow subsidy ...

#2 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Broad upzoning directly targets the root cause—insufficient supply—using the city's one legal lever (zoning/permitting) without requiring new tax revenue, and it works citywide rather than piecemeal, making it more scalable within budget constraints than publi...

#3 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Broad upzoning (F) directly addresses the root cause—insufficient housing supply—using the city's actual regulatory authority (zoning) without requiring new tax revenue beyond the fixed budget. While near-term relief is limited and redevelopment pressure is a ...

#4 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Broad upzoning (F) directly addresses the root cause—insufficient supply relative to demand—using the city's limited regulatory authority (zoning), which is exactly the lever available without needing state tax changes or large capital outlays. While near-term...

#5 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Broad upzoning tackles the root cause—insufficient supply—within the council’s regulatory authority (zoning is something it *can* change), and works citywide rather than limited to permitting speed or expensive public builds. While near-term relief is minimal ...

#6 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Broad upzoning addresses the root supply shortage citywide, leveraging the council's zoning authority without needing new budget or state tax changes, and over five years can meaningfully shift the supply-demand balance despite slower near-term relief. While i...

#7 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Broad upzoning (F) directly targets the root cause—insufficient housing supply relative to demand—by using the city's regulatory authority (its main available lever, since tax law is off-limits) to enable significantly more construction across the city rather ...

GPT 5.4 mini openai_compatible · openai/gpt-5.4-mini
#0 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

The city needs a strategy that can meaningfully increase supply over five years while staying within its zoning and permitting powers and budget limits. Streamlining permits alone won’t add enough new homes without zoning changes, and rent control or vouchers ...

#1 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

The city needs a strategy that best balances supply growth, affordability, and political feasibility over five years. Broad upzoning increases housing capacity at scale, works within zoning authority, and addresses the root supply shortage more effectively tha...

#2 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

The best primary strategy is the one that most directly addresses the supply shortage while staying within the city’s zoning authority and budget limits. Broad upzoning can unlock substantially more housing across many neighborhoods, which is the most durable ...

#3 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

The city needs a strategy that meaningfully increases supply over five years while staying within zoning/permitting authority and budget limits. Broad upzoning best matches that: it can unlock more multifamily housing at scale, works within local regulatory po...

#4 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

The city’s main problem is a structural shortage of housing, so the best long-term strategy is the one that most directly expands supply at scale. Broad upzoning can unlock denser multi-family construction across many neighborhoods, which is more likely to inc...

#5 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

The best strategy should maximize housing supply over five years while staying within the city’s limited authority and budget, and also avoid policies that mainly reshuffle existing units or create strong market distortions. Broad upzoning directly addresses t...

#6 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

The city needs a primary strategy that most directly increases housing supply over five years while staying within its zoning and permitting powers and keeping the plan politically feasible. Broad upzoning unlocks substantially more multi-family development th...

#7 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

The best option is the one that most directly increases housing supply over the next five years while staying within the city’s zoning authority and budget limits. Broad upzoning enables more multi-family construction citywide, which is the strongest supply-si...

Gemini 3 Flash Preview openai_compatible · google/gemini-3-flash-preview
#0 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Upzoning broadly (Option F) addresses the core issue of housing shortages by significantly expanding the potential supply of multi-family units across the city. This strategy utilizes the council's regulatory authority to drive long-term price stabilization th...

#1 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

This decision requires balancing immediate relief against long-term supply and budget constraints. While vouchers (E) or rent caps (B) offer speed, they fail to address the underlying supply shortage and risk market distortion. Broadly upzoning (F) addresses s...

#2 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

This challenge requires balancing immediate relief with long-term supply and political feasibility within budget constraints. Upzoning broadly (F) address the root cause of the shortage by increasing density and supply, whereas options like rent control (B) or...

#3 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

This problem requires balancing immediate relief with long-term supply goals while operating within regulatory and budget constraints. Option (F) addresses the root cause of the crisis by expanding supply capacity across the entire city, which is a powerful to...

#4 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Broadly upzoning (F) addresses the fundamental supply-demand imbalance by allowing more units per lot, which is essential for long-term affordability in a growing market. While other options like direct subsidies or rent caps offer faster relief (E, B) or deep...

#5 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

The problem requires balancing the goals of increasing supply, protecting residents, and staying within budget and regulatory limits. While options like vouchers (E) or public housing (C) provide immediate relief or permanent affordability, they are limited by...

#6 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

To address a severe housing shortage and rising rents, the city must prioritize a long-term increase in supply while adhering to budget and legal constraints. Option (F) addresses the root cause of the crisis by removing density restrictions, which encourages ...

#7 F · Upzone broadly to allow denser multi-family housing citywide, betting on increased supply to lower prices over time even though near-term relief is minimal and existing neighborhoods may see rapid redevelopment. 1536 dims

Option (F) aligns best with the goals of increasing overall housing supply and utilizing the city's specific regulatory authority over zoning. While (A) and (D) address market barriers, only broad upzoning targets the structural shortage at scale to lower pric...

Timings

Stages

Sampling6492 ms
Embedding311 ms
Signals8 ms
PPV1 ms

Errors

Agent and Round Errors

No errors recorded.