Round 36
Choosing a Follow-Up Study Design After an Ambiguous Result
A mid-sized academic lab ran a pilot study testing whether a novel compound reduces inflammatory markers in a mouse model. The pilot showed a promising but statistically weak effect (p=0.07, moderate effect size, small sample of n=12 per group). Funding allows for exactly one follow-up study before the grant renewal deadline in six months. The lab must decide how to allocate limited resources (animals, budget, staff time) to maximize the chance of producing a scientifically credible and publishable result. Options differ in statistical power, cost, speed, and risk of further ambiguity. The team must commit to one path now, as switching mid-study is not feasible given budget constraints.
Status
DECIDEDWinner
B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism.Majority
B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism.Duration
5538 msTopic
Options
Checks
Baselines
PPV
Top Influences
Samples
Answer Distribution
PPV
Influences
| Label | Role | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | delegate | 1.000 |
| GPT 5.4 mini | delegate | 1.000 |
| Gemini 3 Flash Preview | delegate | 1.000 |
Voting matrix
Constructed Delegation Matrix
| To / From | Claude Sonnet 5 | GPT 5.4 mini | Gemini 3 Flash Preview |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Sonnet 5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| GPT 5.4 mini | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Gemini 3 Flash Preview | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| A | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| B | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| C | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| D | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| E | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| F | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Embeddings
Sample Embeddings
Samples
Agent Responses
A high-powered direct replication (B) directly addresses the core problem—the pilot was underpowered and ambiguous—by maximizing statistical power to confirm or refute the effect with tighter controls. This gives the most scientifically credible and publishabl...
A high-powered direct replication (B) directly addresses the core problem—statistical ambiguity from low power—by maximizing the chance of definitively confirming or refuting the effect within the fixed timeline, which is essential for credibility and publisha...
A high-powered direct replication (B) directly addresses the core problem—statistical ambiguity from a small sample—by maximizing power to confirm or refute the original effect, which is the most credible and publishable path given the six-month constraint. Ot...
Given the six-month deadline and need for a single, credible, publishable result, the priority is resolving the ambiguous p=0.07 finding with maximum statistical rigor rather than adding complexity (mechanism, dose-response, new endpoints) that could dilute po...
A high-powered direct replication (B) directly addresses the core ambiguity—whether the effect is real—by maximizing statistical power and control, which is the most credible path to a publishable, unambiguous result within a fixed timeline. Other options trad...
Given the six-month deadline and need for a "scientifically credible and publishable result," the priority is resolving the ambiguous p=0.07 finding with maximum statistical rigor rather than adding complexity or new variables. Option B directly addresses the ...
A high-powered direct replication (Option B) best addresses the core problem: the pilot's ambiguity stems from insufficient power (n=12, p=0.07), so doubling the sample size with tighter controls directly tests whether the effect is real before investing in me...
A high-powered direct replication with tighter controls best resolves the core ambiguity (p=0.07, small n) by maximizing statistical power to confirm or refute the original effect, which is the most credible and publishable outcome given the single-shot constr...
The pilot result is suggestive but still ambiguous, so the best next step is the option that most directly increases statistical power and the credibility of the original finding. A large, tightly controlled replication is the clearest way to turn a weak pilot...
The pilot result is suggestive but not definitive, so the best next step is the one most likely to produce a clear, publishable answer with adequate statistical power. A large, high-powered replication with tighter controls directly tests the original finding ...
The pilot result is promising but still ambiguous, so the best next step is the option that maximizes statistical credibility and power while staying focused on confirming the original finding. A large, high-powered replication with tighter controls is most li...
The pilot result is promising but still ambiguous, so the best follow-up is the option most likely to produce a clear, credible answer within the deadline. A large, high-powered replication directly addresses the original finding with stronger statistical cert...
The pilot result is suggestive but underpowered, so the best next step is a study that most directly increases confidence in the original finding while minimizing ambiguity. A large, high-powered replication with tighter controls gives the strongest chance of ...
The pilot result is promising but not conclusive, so the best follow-up is the option that most directly increases statistical power and confidence in the original finding. A large, high-powered replication with tighter controls is the most scientifically cred...
The pilot result is suggestive but underpowered, so the best next step is the option that most directly increases statistical credibility and publishability: a properly powered replication with tight controls. A large, high-powered study gives the clearest cha...
The pilot result is suggestive but still too uncertain to support a strong claim, so the best use of limited resources is a design that most directly increases statistical power and credibility on the original question. A large, tightly controlled replication ...
To maximize the chance of a scientifically credible and publishable result under a strict deadline, the lab needs to prioritize statistical rigor and confirmatory evidence. Option (B) provides the highest statistical power to validate the pilot’s promising eff...
Choosing the best option requires balancing statistical rigor with the practical constraints of a high-stakes grant deadline. Option (B) is the most scientifically robust choice because a p-value of 0.07 with a moderate effect size suggests the original study ...
To maximize the chance of a scientifically credible and publishable result given the p=0.07 pilot and tight timeframe, the lab must prioritize statistical power and the elimination of "false negative" risks. Option (B) provides the most direct path to a conclu...
To maximize the chance of a scientifically credible and publishable result under a strict deadline, the lab needs to prioritize statistical robustness over exploration. Option (B) ensures the study is sufficiently powered to confirm the moderate effect size ob...
To maximize the chance of a scientifically credible and publishable result under a strict deadline and budget, the lab must prioritize statistical rigor and validation of the initial finding. A p-value of 0.07 with a small sample size suggests the pilot was un...
To maximize the probability of a scientifically credible and publishable result following a p=0.07 pilot, the lab needs to address the lack of statistical power. Option (B) provides a straightforward path to achieving statistical significance (p < 0.05) by inc...
To achieve a scientifically credible and publishable result before a strict deadline, the priority is to resolve the statistical ambiguity ($p=0.07$) with sufficient power. Option (B) directly addresses the limitation of the pilot study (small sample size) by ...
The primary goal is to secure a scientifically credible and publishable result following a promising but underpowered pilot ($p=0.07$). Option (B) provides the highest statistical rigor by increasing power through a larger sample size ($n=24$ per group) and ti...
Timings
Stages
Errors