Round 36

Choosing a Follow-Up Study Design After an Ambiguous Result

A mid-sized academic lab ran a pilot study testing whether a novel compound reduces inflammatory markers in a mouse model. The pilot showed a promising but statistically weak effect (p=0.07, moderate effect size, small sample of n=12 per group). Funding allows for exactly one follow-up study before the grant renewal deadline in six months. The lab must decide how to allocate limited resources (animals, budget, staff time) to maximize the chance of producing a scientifically credible and publishable result. Options differ in statistical power, cost, speed, and risk of further ambiguity. The team must commit to one path now, as switching mid-study is not feasible given budget constraints.

Dashboard

Status

DECIDED

Winner

B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism.

Majority

B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism.

Duration

5538 ms

Topic

Options

B Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism.
3.00 of 3 PPV winner
A Conduct a pre-registered multi-site mini-replication with two collaborating labs, splitting the sample across sites to test generalizability, at the cost of introducing between-site variability.
0.00 of 3
C Switch to a different, more sensitive outcome measure that theory suggests should show a clearer signal, even though it deviates from the original pilot's endpoint and complicates comparison.
0.00 of 3
D Pool the new data with the original pilot data using a Bayesian updating approach, treating the pilot as a prior rather than starting fresh, which reduces new sample size needs but relies on assumptions about prior data quality.
0.00 of 3
E Delay the follow-up and instead run a cheaper dose-response study to first establish whether the compound shows a plausible dose-dependent trend before committing to a full replication.
0.00 of 3
F Run a smaller replication but add mechanistic assays (e.g., pathway markers) to explain *why* the effect might occur, accepting weaker statistical power on the primary outcome.
0.00 of 3

Checks

Baselines

PPV no gold answer
Majority no gold answer
Comparison PPV matched majority
k samples8
Agents3
Parsed samples 24 / 24
Quality unanimous

PPV

Top Influences

Claude Sonnet 5 · delegate 1.000
GPT 5.4 mini · delegate 1.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview · delegate 1.000

Samples

Answer Distribution

Claude Sonnet 5 B: 8
GPT 5.4 mini B: 8
Gemini 3 Flash Preview B: 8

PPV

Influences

Label Role Score
Claude Sonnet 5 delegate 1.000
GPT 5.4 mini delegate 1.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview delegate 1.000

Voting matrix

Constructed Delegation Matrix

To / From Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview
Claude Sonnet 5 0.0000.0000.000
GPT 5.4 mini 0.0000.0000.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview 0.0000.0000.000
A 0.0000.0000.000
B 1.0001.0001.000
C 0.0000.0000.000
D 0.0000.0000.000
E 0.0000.0000.000
F 0.0000.0000.000

Embeddings

Sample Embeddings

24 samples
Claude Sonnet 5 sample #0 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #1 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #2 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #3 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #4 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #5 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #6 · B · 1536 dims B Claude Sonnet 5 sample #7 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #0 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #1 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #2 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #3 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #4 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #5 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #6 · B · 1536 dims B GPT 5.4 mini sample #7 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #0 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #1 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #2 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #3 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #4 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #5 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #6 · B · 1536 dims B Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #7 · B · 1536 dims B
Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview

Samples

Agent Responses

Claude Sonnet 5 openai_compatible · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5
#0 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

A high-powered direct replication (B) directly addresses the core problem—the pilot was underpowered and ambiguous—by maximizing statistical power to confirm or refute the effect with tighter controls. This gives the most scientifically credible and publishabl...

#1 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

A high-powered direct replication (B) directly addresses the core problem—statistical ambiguity from low power—by maximizing the chance of definitively confirming or refuting the effect within the fixed timeline, which is essential for credibility and publisha...

#2 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

A high-powered direct replication (B) directly addresses the core problem—statistical ambiguity from a small sample—by maximizing power to confirm or refute the original effect, which is the most credible and publishable path given the six-month constraint. Ot...

#3 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

Given the six-month deadline and need for a single, credible, publishable result, the priority is resolving the ambiguous p=0.07 finding with maximum statistical rigor rather than adding complexity (mechanism, dose-response, new endpoints) that could dilute po...

#4 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

A high-powered direct replication (B) directly addresses the core ambiguity—whether the effect is real—by maximizing statistical power and control, which is the most credible path to a publishable, unambiguous result within a fixed timeline. Other options trad...

#5 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

Given the six-month deadline and need for a "scientifically credible and publishable result," the priority is resolving the ambiguous p=0.07 finding with maximum statistical rigor rather than adding complexity or new variables. Option B directly addresses the ...

#6 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

A high-powered direct replication (Option B) best addresses the core problem: the pilot's ambiguity stems from insufficient power (n=12, p=0.07), so doubling the sample size with tighter controls directly tests whether the effect is real before investing in me...

#7 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

A high-powered direct replication with tighter controls best resolves the core ambiguity (p=0.07, small n) by maximizing statistical power to confirm or refute the original effect, which is the most credible and publishable outcome given the single-shot constr...

GPT 5.4 mini openai_compatible · openai/gpt-5.4-mini
#0 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

The pilot result is suggestive but still ambiguous, so the best next step is the option that most directly increases statistical power and the credibility of the original finding. A large, tightly controlled replication is the clearest way to turn a weak pilot...

#1 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

The pilot result is suggestive but not definitive, so the best next step is the one most likely to produce a clear, publishable answer with adequate statistical power. A large, high-powered replication with tighter controls directly tests the original finding ...

#2 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

The pilot result is promising but still ambiguous, so the best next step is the option that maximizes statistical credibility and power while staying focused on confirming the original finding. A large, high-powered replication with tighter controls is most li...

#3 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

The pilot result is promising but still ambiguous, so the best follow-up is the option most likely to produce a clear, credible answer within the deadline. A large, high-powered replication directly addresses the original finding with stronger statistical cert...

#4 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

The pilot result is suggestive but underpowered, so the best next step is a study that most directly increases confidence in the original finding while minimizing ambiguity. A large, high-powered replication with tighter controls gives the strongest chance of ...

#5 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

The pilot result is promising but not conclusive, so the best follow-up is the option that most directly increases statistical power and confidence in the original finding. A large, high-powered replication with tighter controls is the most scientifically cred...

#6 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

The pilot result is suggestive but underpowered, so the best next step is the option that most directly increases statistical credibility and publishability: a properly powered replication with tight controls. A large, high-powered study gives the clearest cha...

#7 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

The pilot result is suggestive but still too uncertain to support a strong claim, so the best use of limited resources is a design that most directly increases statistical power and credibility on the original question. A large, tightly controlled replication ...

Gemini 3 Flash Preview openai_compatible · google/gemini-3-flash-preview
#0 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

To maximize the chance of a scientifically credible and publishable result under a strict deadline, the lab needs to prioritize statistical rigor and confirmatory evidence. Option (B) provides the highest statistical power to validate the pilot’s promising eff...

#1 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

Choosing the best option requires balancing statistical rigor with the practical constraints of a high-stakes grant deadline. Option (B) is the most scientifically robust choice because a p-value of 0.07 with a moderate effect size suggests the original study ...

#2 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

To maximize the chance of a scientifically credible and publishable result given the p=0.07 pilot and tight timeframe, the lab must prioritize statistical power and the elimination of "false negative" risks. Option (B) provides the most direct path to a conclu...

#3 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

To maximize the chance of a scientifically credible and publishable result under a strict deadline, the lab needs to prioritize statistical robustness over exploration. Option (B) ensures the study is sufficiently powered to confirm the moderate effect size ob...

#4 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

To maximize the chance of a scientifically credible and publishable result under a strict deadline and budget, the lab must prioritize statistical rigor and validation of the initial finding. A p-value of 0.07 with a small sample size suggests the pilot was un...

#5 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

To maximize the probability of a scientifically credible and publishable result following a p=0.07 pilot, the lab needs to address the lack of statistical power. Option (B) provides a straightforward path to achieving statistical significance (p < 0.05) by inc...

#6 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

To achieve a scientifically credible and publishable result before a strict deadline, the priority is to resolve the statistical ambiguity ($p=0.07$) with sufficient power. Option (B) directly addresses the limitation of the pilot study (small sample size) by ...

#7 B · Run a large, high-powered replication study with double the sample size, focusing solely on confirming the original effect with tighter controls, sacrificing exploration of mechanism. 1536 dims

The primary goal is to secure a scientifically credible and publishable result following a promising but underpowered pilot ($p=0.07$). Option (B) provides the highest statistical rigor by increasing power through a larger sample size ($n=24$ per group) and ti...

Timings

Stages

Sampling4610 ms
Embedding915 ms
Signals12 ms
PPV1 ms

Errors

Agent and Round Errors

No errors recorded.