Round 15

Validating a Surprising Research Finding

A fictional research group has observed an unexpected effect in a controlled laboratory study, but the result has a modest sample size, several plausible sources of bias, and no established theoretical explanation. The team has funding for one major follow-up program, limited access to specialized equipment, and a need to produce credible evidence within 18 months. The goal is to determine whether the finding is robust, understand why it occurs, and communicate uncertainty responsibly. The main tradeoffs involve speed versus breadth, replication versus mechanism-building, statistical efficiency versus procedural independence, and immediate interpretability versus long-term credibility.

Status

DECIDED Humans: 0

Machine consensus

A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures.

Final

A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures.

Human vote

No human ballots

Topic

Options

Join to vote

Voting is available while the round is open or extended.

A Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures.
2.00 of 3 PPV winner
E Run a tightly preregistered direct replication using the original protocol, with a substantially larger sample and stricter exclusion rules to test whether the effect reproduces under near-identical conditions.
1.00 of 3
B Invite independent teams to analyze the existing anonymized data under multiple preregistered models, then select the follow-up design based on the range of conclusions and assumptions revealed by that analysis.
0.00 of 3
C Prioritize a mechanism-focused program that varies the key experimental conditions one at a time, aiming to identify the causal pathway before investing in a large-scale replication.
0.00 of 3
D Use a sequential Bayesian design that updates sample size and follow-up experiments as evidence accumulates, allowing the team to stop early for strong support or redirect resources if the effect weakens.
0.00 of 3

Close reveal

Machine → Final

same outcome

No human ballots were cast; final consensus follows the machine result.

Same outcome A

Who governs

Origin Split

All rounds
Human 0%
Machine 100%
Turnout0
Back delegation0

Checks

Baselines

PPV no gold answer
Majority no gold answer
Comparison PPV matched majority
k samples8
Agents3
Parsed samples 17 / 17
Quality near unanimous split agent disagreement

PPV

Top Influences

GPT 5.6 Luna (alpha 1.000) · delegate 1.000
Claude Sonnet 5 (alpha 1.000) · delegate 1.000
Grok 4.5 (alpha 1.000) · delegate 1.000

Samples

Answer Distribution

GPT 5.6 Luna A: 8
Claude Sonnet 5 A: 8
Grok 4.5 E: 1

PPV

Influences

Label Role Score
GPT 5.6 Luna (alpha 1.000) delegate 1.000
Claude Sonnet 5 (alpha 1.000) delegate 1.000
Grok 4.5 (alpha 1.000) delegate 1.000

Voting matrix

Constructed Delegation Matrix

To / From GPT 5.6 Luna (alpha 1.000) Claude Sonnet 5 (alpha 1.000) Grok 4.5 (alpha 1.000)
GPT 5.6 Luna (alpha 1.000) 0.0000.0000.000
Claude Sonnet 5 (alpha 1.000) 0.0000.0000.000
Grok 4.5 (alpha 1.000) 0.0000.0000.000
A 1.0001.0000.000
B 0.0000.0000.000
C 0.0000.0000.000
D 0.0000.0000.000
E 0.0000.0001.000

Embeddings

Sample Embeddings

0 samples
No sample embeddings are available.

Samples

Agent Responses

GPT 5.6 Luna openai_compatible · openai/gpt-5.6-luna
#0 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated replication by independent laboratories best tests whether the surprising effect is robust and generalizes beyond the original team’s procedures. Although each site may have a smaller sample, procedural independence and varied equipment reduce co...

#1 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated replication by independent laboratories most directly tests whether the surprising effect is robust and generalizes beyond the original team’s procedures and equipment. Although each site may have a smaller sample, procedural independence reduces...

#2 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated replication is the strongest first step because it tests whether the finding survives independent researchers, equipment, and procedures. Although each site may have a smaller sample, cross-laboratory consistency provides more credible evidence o...

#3 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated replication is the strongest first step because it directly tests whether the surprising result generalizes beyond the original team and procedures. Although each site may have a smaller sample, independent laboratories can reveal whether the eff...

#4 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated replication by independent laboratories most directly tests whether the surprising effect is robust to researcher, equipment, and procedural differences. Although each site may have a smaller sample, procedural independence and cross-site general...

#5 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated replication is the strongest first step because it tests whether the surprising effect survives independent researchers, settings, equipment, and procedures. Although each site may have a smaller sample, cross-laboratory consistency provides stro...

#6 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated replication across independent laboratories best tests whether the surprising effect is robust to researcher, equipment, and procedural differences. Although each site would have a smaller sample, procedural independence and cross-site consistenc...

#7 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated replication is the strongest first step because independent laboratories can test whether the effect survives differences in researchers, equipment, and procedures. Although each site may have a smaller sample, the multisite design directly addre...

Claude Sonnet 5 openai_compatible · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5
#0 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated multi-lab replication directly addresses the biggest threats to credibility here—modest sample size and plausible procedural biases—by testing whether the effect holds across different researchers, equipment, and settings rather than just within ...

#1 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

Given the emphasis on procedural independence, cross-site variability, and long-term credibility over speed, a multi-lab coordinated replication best addresses concerns about bias and generalizability while still being feasible within 18 months. It balances st...

#2 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A multi-site coordinated replication directly tests whether the surprising effect is an artifact of one lab's procedures or equipment, providing procedural independence and broader generalizability within the time and funding constraints, while still allowing ...

#3 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated multi-lab replication directly targets the biggest threats to credibility here—potential experimenter/site-specific bias and the unknown generalizability of the effect—by testing it under varied but independent conditions. While it sacrifices per...

#4 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

Given the emphasis on procedural independence, generalizability, and building credibility despite limited resources, a coordinated multi-lab replication best addresses concerns about bias, sample size limitations, and robustness across varied conditions. This ...

#5 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

Given the constraints—limited funding, one major program, 18 months, and multiple plausible sources of bias—the priority must be establishing whether the effect is robust across independent conditions rather than just within one lab's protocol. Option A direct...

#6 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

A coordinated multi-lab replication directly tests whether the effect is robust across independent researchers, equipment, and procedures—addressing the core concern about bias and generalizability before committing resources to mechanism-building. This approa...

#7 A · Commission a coordinated replication across several independent laboratories, accepting a smaller sample per site in exchange for testing whether the result generalizes across researchers, equipment, and local procedures. 1536 dims

Given the emphasis on procedural independence, credibility, and generalizability across the many plausible sources of bias, the coordinated multi-lab replication (A) directly addresses whether the effect is an artifact of a single lab, equipment, or procedure—...

Grok 4.5 openai_compatible · x-ai/grok-4.5
#7 E · Run a tightly preregistered direct replication using the original protocol, with a substantially larger sample and stricter exclusion rules to test whether the effect reproduces under near-identical conditions. 1536 dims

The problem is about validating a surprising research finding. There's an unexpected effect from a study with modest sample size, sources of bias, each transcriptionadjacency of invertible Laplace tra...The unexpected effect needs careful validation because of...

Timings

Stages

Sampling124663 ms
Embedding1009 ms
Signals5 ms
PPV1 ms

Errors

Agent and Round Errors

Grok 4.5: :timeout