Round 109

Interpreting a Preregistered Null Result

A well-powered, preregistered trial testing a promising intervention (e.g., a cognitive or clinical treatment) found no statistically significant effect on its primary outcome. The team preregistered its hypotheses and analysis plan, so the null result is credible, but funders and collaborators are eager for a clear takeaway, and the field has a history of publication bias against null findings. Resources for follow-up work are limited, and any path chosen will shape both the scientific record and future funding. The team must decide how to interpret and act on this result, balancing scientific rigor, transparency, cost, and the risk of either overclaiming a null effect or wasting resources chasing a false lead.

Dashboard

Status

DECIDED

Winner

D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold.

Majority

D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold.

Duration

4274 ms

Topic

Options

D Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold.
3.00 of 3 PPV winner
A Commit resources to a large, independent replication attempt before drawing any firm conclusion from the current data.
0.00 of 3
B Shelve the current protocol and redesign the study with a modified primary outcome or intervention dose before committing further resources.
0.00 of 3
C Declare the result inconclusive due to borderline statistical power, pause firm conclusions, and pursue a multi-site pooled analysis with other labs.
0.00 of 3
E Publish the null result exactly as preregistered, framing it as strong evidence against the effect, and let the broader field respond.
0.00 of 3
F Run clearly labeled exploratory subgroup analyses to look for moderators that might explain why the main effect didn't appear, while keeping the primary null result intact.
0.00 of 3

Checks

Baselines

PPV no gold answer
Majority no gold answer
Comparison PPV matched majority
k samples8
Agents3
Parsed samples 24 / 24
Quality near unanimous split

PPV

Top Influences

Claude Sonnet 5 · delegate 1.106
Gemini 3 Flash Preview · delegate 1.106
GPT 5.4 mini · delegate 1.000

Samples

Answer Distribution

Claude Sonnet 5 D: 8
GPT 5.4 mini D: 7 E: 1
Gemini 3 Flash Preview D: 8

PPV

Influences

Label Role Score
Claude Sonnet 5 delegate 1.106
Gemini 3 Flash Preview delegate 1.106
GPT 5.4 mini delegate 1.000

Voting matrix

Constructed Delegation Matrix

To / From Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview
Claude Sonnet 5 0.0000.1060.000
GPT 5.4 mini 0.0000.0000.000
Gemini 3 Flash Preview 0.0000.1060.000
A 0.0000.0000.000
B 0.0000.0000.000
C 0.0000.0000.000
D 1.0000.7891.000
E 0.0000.0000.000
F 0.0000.0000.000

Embeddings

Sample Embeddings

24 samples
Claude Sonnet 5 sample #0 · D · 1536 dims D Claude Sonnet 5 sample #1 · D · 1536 dims D Claude Sonnet 5 sample #2 · D · 1536 dims D Claude Sonnet 5 sample #3 · D · 1536 dims D Claude Sonnet 5 sample #4 · D · 1536 dims D Claude Sonnet 5 sample #5 · D · 1536 dims D Claude Sonnet 5 sample #6 · D · 1536 dims D Claude Sonnet 5 sample #7 · D · 1536 dims D GPT 5.4 mini sample #0 · D · 1536 dims D GPT 5.4 mini sample #1 · D · 1536 dims D GPT 5.4 mini sample #2 · D · 1536 dims D GPT 5.4 mini sample #3 · D · 1536 dims D GPT 5.4 mini sample #4 · D · 1536 dims D GPT 5.4 mini sample #5 · D · 1536 dims D GPT 5.4 mini sample #6 · D · 1536 dims D GPT 5.4 mini sample #7 · E · 1536 dims E Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #0 · D · 1536 dims D Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #1 · D · 1536 dims D Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #2 · D · 1536 dims D Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #3 · D · 1536 dims D Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #4 · D · 1536 dims D Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #5 · D · 1536 dims D Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #6 · D · 1536 dims D Gemini 3 Flash Preview sample #7 · D · 1536 dims D
Claude Sonnet 5 GPT 5.4 mini Gemini 3 Flash Preview

Samples

Agent Responses

Claude Sonnet 5 openai_compatible · anthropic/claude-sonnet-5
#0 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The trial was well-powered and preregistered, so the null result is credible—no need for costly replication, redesign, or claims of “inconclusive” due to power issues. The most rigorous and cost-effective step is to quantify evidence strength directly using Ba...

#1 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The study was described as well-powered and preregistered, so power isn't the issue and pursuing a new replication or redesign would waste scarce resources without first extracting maximum information from the existing dataset. The scientifically rigorous, cos...

#2 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

A well-powered preregistered study already addresses power concerns, so the priority is extracting maximal evidential value from the existing data rather than duplicating resources or abandoning the design. Bayesian reanalysis (D) directly quantifies the stren...

#3 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The trial was well-powered and preregistered, so the null result is credible—but a simple significance threshold conflates "no evidence for effect" with "evidence for no effect." Bayesian reanalysis directly quantifies the strength of evidence for the null ver...

#4 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

Since the trial was well-powered and preregistered, the null result is already credible, so the key next step is to characterize the strength of evidence for the null rather than treat it as merely "not significant." Applying Bayesian analysis to the existing ...

#5 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

Since the trial was well-powered and preregistered, the null result is already credible, so the priority is to characterize the strength of evidence rather than assume power problems or immediately redesign/replicate. A Bayesian reanalysis (D) directly quantif...

#6 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The trial was well-powered and preregistered, so the null result is already credible—there's no need for a further replication, redesign, or pooling before drawing conclusions. The key remaining question is how strong the evidence for the null actually is, whi...

#7 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The trial was well-powered and preregistered, so the null result is already credible—concerns about power don't apply, and immediate costly replication or redesign is premature. The most rigorous next step is to formally quantify evidential strength using Baye...

GPT 5.4 mini openai_compatible · openai/gpt-5.4-mini
#0 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The preregistered design and adequate power make the null result credible, so the key need is to communicate how much evidence the data provide without overclaiming “no effect.” A Bayesian reanalysis can quantify support for the null versus the original hypoth...

#1 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The best choice is to report the preregistered null result transparently and avoid overinterpreting it as proof of no effect. Since the study was well-powered and preregistered, the main finding is credible, but a single null trial still does not fully establi...

#2 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

Because the study was preregistered and well powered, the null finding is credible and should be reported transparently. But a single null result usually should not be treated as definitive proof of no effect; the most careful next step is to quantify how much...

#3 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The preregistered, well-powered null result is already credible, so the main task is to communicate it transparently without overstating it. A Bayesian reanalysis can add nuance by quantifying evidence for the null versus the alternative, which is especially u...

#4 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The trial was preregistered and well-powered, so the null result should be treated as credible rather than as “inconclusive” from low power. But a nonsignificant result alone does not establish the null hypothesis; a Bayesian reanalysis can directly quantify h...

#5 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The preregistered design and adequate power make the null result credible, so the main priority is to interpret it transparently without overclaiming that the effect is definitively absent. A Bayesian reanalysis can quantify how much the data support the null ...

#6 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The trial was preregistered and well-powered, so the null result is already credible and should be reported transparently rather than treated as inconclusive or replaced by post hoc changes. The most scientifically useful next step is to quantify how strongly ...

#7 E · Publish the null result exactly as preregistered, framing it as strong evidence against the effect, and let the broader field respond. 1536 dims

The key issue is that the trial was preregistered, well-powered, and found no significant effect, so the cleanest next step is to report the null result transparently without overinterpreting it. Because the field is biased against nulls, publishing it as prer...

Gemini 3 Flash Preview openai_compatible · google/gemini-3-flash-preview
#0 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

To navigate this situation, the team should use Bayesian methods to quantify the strength of evidence for the null hypothesis, as a non-significant $p$-value cannot distinguish between "absence of evidence" and "evidence of absence." This approach provides a m...

#1 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

This decision requires balancing the limitations of frequentist null-hypothesis testing (which cannot "prove" a null) with the high credibility of a preregistered, well-powered trial. Since the study was well-powered and preregistered, Bayesian reanalysis prov...

#2 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

By using Bayesian methods, the team can move beyond the binary "significant vs. non-significant" framework to quantify whether the data actually supports the null hypothesis or is simply insensitive. This approach maximizes the value of the existing dataset wi...

#3 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

The primary goal of a preregistered, well-powered trial is to provide a definitive answer to a specific scientific question, helping to counteract the field's publication bias. Utilizing Bayesian methods allows the team to move beyond binary significance thres...

#4 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

Because the trial was preregistered and well-powered, the team should prioritize transparency and mitigate publication bias by publishing the primary null results as planned. Bayesian reanalysis provides a formal way to quantify strength of evidence for the nu...

#5 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

This decision requires balancing the interpretation of a well-powered null result with a more informative statistical framework than traditional null-hypothesis significance testing. Since the trial was preregistered and well-powered, a Bayesian reanalysis all...

#6 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

This scenario highlights the limitations of Frequentist p-values, which cannot distinguish between "absence of evidence" and "evidence of absence." Option (D) provides a methodologically rigorous path to quantify the strength of the evidence for the null hypot...

#7 D · Reanalyze the existing dataset with Bayesian methods to quantify relative evidence for the null versus the original hypothesis, rather than relying solely on the significance threshold. 1536 dims

Because the trial was preregistered and well-powered, the team should prioritize transparency and avoid the pitfalls of p-hacking or publication bias. Using Bayesian reanalysis allows the team to distinguish between "absence of evidence" (inconclusive data) an...

Timings

Stages

Sampling3979 ms
Embedding283 ms
Signals12 ms
PPV0 ms

Errors

Agent and Round Errors

No errors recorded.