Round 10
Groundwater Permit Policy During Drought
A regional council oversees an aquifer shared by farming cooperatives, small manufacturers, and residential communities in a drought-prone area. Water levels have dropped sharply for three consecutive years, and a new extraction policy is needed before the next planting season. The council must choose one primary mechanism to allocate remaining groundwater permits. Goals include preventing aquifer collapse, treating sectors fairly, keeping local economic activity viable, and maintaining administrative simplicity given the council's limited staff. Any option will impose real costs: some sectors may face steep short-term losses, some approaches require costly monitoring infrastructure, and some risk future legal disputes over fairness or vested rights. The council must pick the mechanism it will implement region-wide for the next five years.
Status
DECIDED Humans: 0Machine consensus
B · Set hard regional extraction caps enforced by real-time metering and automatic shutoffs once the aquifer hits a critical threshold, prioritizing ecological limits over sector needs.Final
B · Set hard regional extraction caps enforced by real-time metering and automatic shutoffs once the aquifer hits a critical threshold, prioritizing ecological limits over sector needs.Human vote
No human ballotsTopic
Options
Voting is available while the round is open or extended.
Close reveal
Machine → Final
No human ballots were cast; final consensus follows the machine result.
Checks
Baselines
PPV
Top Influences
Samples
Answer Distribution
PPV
Influences
| Label | Role | Score |
|---|---|---|
| GPT 5.6 Luna (alpha 1.000) | delegate | 1.000 |
| Claude Sonnet 5 (alpha 1.000) | delegate | 1.000 |
Voting matrix
Constructed Delegation Matrix
| To / From | GPT 5.6 Luna (alpha 1.000) | Claude Sonnet 5 (alpha 1.000) |
|---|---|---|
| GPT 5.6 Luna (alpha 1.000) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Claude Sonnet 5 (alpha 1.000) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| A | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| C | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| D | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| E | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| F | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Embeddings
Sample Embeddings
Samples
Agent Responses
A hard regional cap directly limits total extraction, making it the strongest option for preventing aquifer collapse. Real-time metering and automatic shutoffs are costly, but they provide enforceable protection and avoid relying on uncertain market responses ...
Because the aquifer has declined for three consecutive years, preventing ecological collapse should take priority over preserving unrestricted sector use. Hard regional caps tied to real-time monitoring and automatic shutoffs provide a clear, enforceable limit...
A hard regional cap directly prevents extraction from exceeding the aquifer’s sustainable threshold, making it the strongest option for avoiding irreversible collapse. Although real-time metering requires investment and may impose abrupt costs, automatic shuto...
Hard regional caps directly prevent aquifer collapse by tying extraction to an ecological threshold, while real-time metering makes enforcement clear and consistent across sectors. Although the monitoring system is costly, it offers stronger long-term protecti...
A hard regional cap with real-time metering directly prevents extraction from exceeding the aquifer’s safe threshold, making ecological protection enforceable rather than aspirational. Although it requires monitoring investment and may impose sharp sectoral co...
Option (B) directly prevents aquifer collapse by tying extraction to a hard ecological threshold, while applying the same enforceable regional limit across sectors. Although real-time metering requires investment, it provides clearer accountability and better ...
A hard regional cap directly prevents extraction from exceeding the aquifer’s safe limit, with automatic shutoffs providing reliable enforcement during severe drought. Although real-time metering is costly and may impose sharper sectoral losses, it best priori...
Option B most directly prevents aquifer collapse by tying extraction to a measurable critical threshold and automatically enforcing the limit. Although real-time metering is costly and may impose significant sectoral losses, it provides the clearest ecological...
Option B best addresses the urgent ecological crisis by enforcing hard, science-based extraction caps tied to real-time aquifer monitoring, directly preventing collapse rather than merely redistributing burdens. While it requires costly metering infrastructure...
Hard caps with real-time metering (B) directly address the primary and most urgent goal: preventing aquifer collapse, which is an ecological/physical constraint that other mechanisms (market-based, phased, or rotating) cannot guarantee will be respected in tim...
Hard caps with real-time metering (B) directly address the core, urgent goal—preventing aquifer collapse—by tying extraction limits to actual ecological thresholds rather than historical use, sector negotiation, or market dynamics, which is critical given thre...
Given the acute risk of aquifer collapse, the council's top priority must be a hard ecological limit rather than sector-specific fairness or economic optimization. Real-time metering with automatic shutoffs directly addresses the physical threshold problem, en...
Given the emergency (three years of sharp decline) and the explicit priority on preventing aquifer collapse, a hard ecological cap enforced by metering directly addresses the binding physical constraint rather than optimizing for fairness, economics, or admini...
Given the acute risk of aquifer collapse, the council's top priority must be a hard ecological limit rather than fairness optics, market efficiency, or protecting incumbents, since exceeding the threshold could cause irreversible damage regardless of allocatio...
Hard extraction caps tied to the aquifer's actual threshold directly address the primary risk (aquifer collapse) rather than treating fairness, economics, or simplicity as equally weighted goals, since ecological failure would undermine all sectors simultaneou...
Given the aquifer is at risk of collapse within the five-year horizon, ecological sustainability must take priority over efficiency, tradition, or rotating burdens—options that don't guarantee the aquifer survives. Hard caps enforced by metering directly addre...
Timings
Stages
Errors
Agent and Round Errors
Grok 4.5: :timeout